为了克服单一的航班延误预测模型在预报时的缺陷,在分析航班延误的特点的情况下,提出了一种基于危险模式和灰色预测组合的新型航班延误预测的方法.对这两种预测方法的结果采用加权组合预测的方式来预测航班延误的趋势变化,预测结果是单一预测模型的加权和,加权系数动态确定.最后通过国内的某枢纽机场的航班延误情况进行了验证.实验表明该模型可以不受某一较差的预测模型影响,从而有较好的预测效果.%In order to solve the problem of flight delay forecasting including the characteristics of airport flight operation,a new composite foreeasting model based on the danger model theory and the grey model theory is proposed.The composite prediction method in this paper uses the pattern of weighted composition which is according to the oeeupaney proportion of the mean square errors forecasting. The model use the modified approach reflects the periodicity. The experimental result shows that the prediction results is qualified,the new model can meet the requirement of real-time prediction for the management of emergency departments.
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