针对生产误差影响引信自毁时间的问题,利用数理统计方法和引信自毁时间靶场验收试验数据对自毁时间的生产变化规律进行了分析,并利用时间序列分析建立了自毁时间的生产变化规律预测模型.通过对离心自毁和火药自毁共4型引信自毁时间的分析表明,随着生产历史的增长,引信自毁时间可能会发生漂移,散布区间也可能会改变,为避免自毁时间不能满足性能指标,在生产过程中应该对此予以关注.利用4型引信自毁时间试验数据对建立的时间序列分析预测模型进行检验,拟合效果良好.4种引信自毁时间实测值和预测值的平均绝对误差都小于10％,B型引信和C型引信的平均绝对误差小于3％.%In order to make sure the influence to self-destroying time from production error,the means of mathematical statistics and the range test data were used to analyse the law of production variation of fuze self-destroying time, and the analysis of time series was used to set up the prediction model of the law of production variation of fuze self-destroying time.It was found that self-destruction time of fuze is likely to drift and distribution interval may change as the growth of the production history by analyzing 4 type fuze self-destroying time self-destruct by centrifugal steel ball self-destroying device or by powder.The manufacturer should pay attention to it in the process of production to avoid self-destruction time can not meet the performance index.The prediction model of the law of production variation of fuze self-destroying time was tested by 4 kinds of fuze self-destruction time data and the result is good.The mean absolute error of four kinds of fuze self-destruction time between measured and predicted are less than 10％ and B type and C type fuze are less than 3％.
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