Proper assessment of the threat level of incoming targets is important, and error analysis also is necessary, which could influence the decision of air defense, and target position error on threatening grade evaluation of impact analysis model is established from this point. This Model provided a goal index of false assess on threat judgment based on the analysis of the position errors brought by the recon equipments, coordinates transformation and synchronal time of information, then established a probability model to measure the false degree on threat judgment. Simulation results showed that the false assessment probability model was realistic and effective.%从威胁等级误判直接影响防空作战的效果,但是未见从这一角度展开的研究报道,因此,提出目标位置误差对威胁等级评定影响的分析模型.该模型综合分析舰艇编队对反舰导弹的探测误差、坐标转换引入误差和时间同步引入误差,提出威胁等级错误评定概率的目标指标和度量方法.仿真表明建立的目标位置误差对威胁等级评定影响的分析模型符实、可用.
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