Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

李科; 齐晶瑶; BROWN Casey; 王灵芝

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Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

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Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.

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《东华大学学报：英文版》 |2015年第5期|851-854|共4页
作者
李科; 齐晶瑶; BROWN Casey; 王灵芝;
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作者单位

Key Laboratory of Songliao Aquatic Environment;

Ministry of Education;

Jilin Jianzhu University;

State Key Lab of Urban Water Resource and Environment;

Harbin Institute of Technology;

Civil and Environmental Engineering;

University of Massachusetts-Amherst;

College of Earth Sciences;

Jilin University;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 chi
中图分类水利规划、水电规划;
关键词
climate change; water resources systems; general circulation models(GCMs); risk; bottom-up method;

Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

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