Microcystis aeruginosa bloom is a major harmful Cyanobacteria bloom in lakes and reservoirs. Researches on methods for prediction and forecasting of algal blooms are of important significance to mitigating harm of the blooms. Based on the CE-QUAL-W2 model, indoor growth of Microcystis aeruginosa, a dominant species, typical of Cyanobacteria blooms was simulated with the aid of the PIKAIA genetic algorithm for analysis of sensitivity of different growth kinetci pa-rameters to its growth,and threshold of sensitive parameters. Results show that the CE-QUAL-W2 model is good at simu-lating indoor growth process of Microcystis aeruginosa, and AG(maximum algal growth rate), AS(algal settling rate), ASAT(light saturation intensity at maximum photosynthetic rate),ALGN(ALGP)[stoichiometric equivalent between al-gal biomass and nitrogen(phosphorus)],and ACHLA(ratio between algal biomass and chlorophyll a)are the sensitive parameters that affect growth of Microcystis aeruginosa. Among them,AG and ACHLA are positively related to Chlorophyll a peak,while AS,ASAT,ALGP and ALGN are negatively related. Besides,AS and ACHLA are positively related to the time Chlorophyll a peak appears,while AG,ALGP and ALGN are negatively related. Variation of ACHLA can only multi-ply or reduce Chlorophyll a by time,but it will not affect the time the peak appears. Optimal values of the six parameters are defined as follows: AG=7.526 8 d-1, AS=0.002 2 m·d-1, ASAT= 102.774 4 W·m-2, ALGP=0.000 5,ALGN=0.041 3,ACHLA=0.125 8 mg·μg-1.%铜绿微囊藻水华是目前湖库中主要的有害蓝藻水华,其预测预报方法研究对缓解水华危害具有重要意义.在CE-QUAL-W2模型的基础上,利用PIKAIA遗传算法模拟一种蓝藻水华典型优势种铜绿微囊藻(Microcystis aeruginosa)的室内生长过程,分析不同生长动力学参数对其生长的敏感性,并确定敏感性参数的阈值.结果表明, CE-QUAL-W2模型能较好地模拟铜绿微囊藻的室内生长过程,最大生长率(AG)、沉降速率(AS)、最适光强(ASAT)、藻细胞氮含量(ALGN)、藻细胞磷含量(ALGP)和单位藻干重叶绿素a(Chl-a)含量(ACHLA)是影响铜绿微囊藻生长的敏感性参数.其中,与Chl-a峰值呈正相关的参数有AG和ACHLA,呈负相关的参数有AS、ASAT、ALGP和ALGN.与Chl-a峰现时间呈正相关的参数有AS和ASAT,呈负相关的参数有AG、ALGP和ALGN.ACHLA的变化只会使Chl-a同倍比放大或缩小,不改变峰现时间.这6个参数的较优取值如下:AG为7.5268 d-1,AS为0.0022 m·d-1,ASAT为102.7744 W·m-2,ALGP为0.0005,ALGN为0.0413,ACHLA为0.1258 mg·μg-1.
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