Trend of the impact of climate change on scope and spatial pattern of the distribution of breeding sites of red-crowned crane ( Grus japonensis) in Northeast China was simulated and hence predicted using the maximum entropy model in combination with the general circulation model and the two climate scenarios ( A2 and B2) recently published by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Results show that in either scenario, the climate change will lead to steadily shrinkage of the suitable nesting area for the birds and shift of the birds' core distribution area towards west and north. The change is very obvious in the three provinces of Northeast China. The east part of Inner Mongolia will become a major place of habitat for the red-crowned cranes. It is, therefore, suggested that a complete reliable set of systems be established as soon as possible for monitoring distribution of the red-crowned cranes in China, and that greater efforts be done to restore the wetlands in that region by replenishing them with water to conserve the breeding grounds of the birds.%利用最大熵模型,结合大气环流模型和IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)最新发布的A2和B2气候情景,模拟和预测气候变化对我国东北地区丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)繁殖地分布范围及空间格局的影响趋势.结果表明,在A2和B2气候情景下,气候变化将导致丹顶鹤的繁殖适生区域不断缩减,核心分布区域向西和向北移动,其中东北3省的栖息地变化明显,内蒙古东部地区未来将成为丹顶鹤的主要栖息地.认为我国急需建立一套完整可靠的丹顶鹤分布监测系统,进一步加强湿地的人工补水和湿地恢复等工作,以利于丹顶鹤繁殖地的保护.
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