In the application of planning and management of the limited resources of radar, the fluctuation of the target’s Radar Cross Section (RCS) area will have a significant impact on the effects of allocation of resources. For this problem, this paper puts forward a prediction of target radar cross section method. This method firstly gets the measurement of the target’s radar cross section, and predicts the value by using the method of probability density transfer. Based on the calculation of radar measured data from three types of aircraft, the method can get more accurate prediction. Finally, the optimization of power distribution equation is built and simulation results demonstrate that the accurate prediction of the RCS will improve the measurement accuracy after the power allocation.%在管理与优化雷达有限资源的应用中，目标的雷达截面积的起伏会对资源分配后的效果产生巨大的影响。针对该问题，该文提出一种对目标的雷达截面积进行预测的方法。该方法首先对回波进行处理以获取目标雷达截面积的测量值，进而通过概率密度转移的方法对目标在下一个时刻的雷达截面积进行预测。通过对来自3种飞机的雷达实测数据的计算，验证了该预测方法能够得到较为准确的预测值。最后，建立功率分配的优化方程，并通过仿真验证了对雷达截面积准确的预测能够提高功率分配后的测量精度。
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