This articleuses grey model GM (1 ,1) to simulate and forecasts the concentration of 226Ra ,90Sr , total uranium ,total thorium radioactivity in HuangpuRiverbased on the monitoring data from 2004 to 2012 . And then it usesMatlabto calculatethe predicted values ,variance ratio and small error probabilityof the mod-el ,and verifiesthe feasibility of the model inpredicting theradionuclide concentrationin rivers ,w hich proves that the grey theory model can be used for early warningofriver radioactive pollution .%基于上海市黄浦江水2004~2012年的监测数据,采用灰色理论模型GM (1,1)对黄浦江水中放射性核素226 Ra、90 Sr、总U、总Th浓度变化进行模拟预测,并利用Matlab语言编程计算模型中的预测值、均方差比值及小误差概率,验证了该模型在预测河流放射性核素浓度方面的可行性,表明灰色理论模型可用于河流放射性污染的预警。
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