Based on the basic fanning area framework,the relationship between the income level and consumption demand of residents is combed through an analysis of time series data and forecast,and the seawater aquaculture products supply and demand for Chinese residents is tested by using the exponential function,Eviews software and other tools.The results are:in 2030,a total of about 2.9 to 3.1 million hectares national marineculture areas are needed,Liaoning and Shandong provinces will be the biggest marineculture products supply areas.However Shanghai,mariculture areas should be expanded in Tianjin and Hebei provinces urgently.%基于“基本养殖区”框架,通过时间序列数据分析,梳理了全国居民收入水平与海产品消费需求间的关系;利用Excel、Eviews软件等工具,开展了中国居民养殖海产品供需预测与检验.研究表明,2030年全国养殖用海需求总量约为290～310万hm2,辽宁省、山东省仍是养殖产品供应大省,上海市、天津市、河北省养殖用海空间亟需扩容.
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