根据日本对太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群体的资源评估报告，以及产卵场海表温度（tSST）、叶绿素a质量浓度（ρChl-a），计算分析太平洋褶柔鱼在产卵期产卵场各月最适表温范围占总面积的比例（PS）、表征产卵场环境的tSST、ρChl-a等多种环境因子与单位捕捞努力量的渔获量(CPUE)的相关性，建立多种基于主要环境因子的资源补充量预报模型。结果表明：太平洋褶柔鱼资源补充量与各月的tSST的相关系数最大值海域分别为10月份的Point1（33.5°N，129.5°E）、11月份的Point2（31°N，127°E）和12月份的Point3（33.5°N，125°E）；与各月的ρChl-a浓度的相关系数最大值海域出现在11月份的Point4（34°N，129.5°E）和12月份的Point5（35°N，130°E）。基于Point1的tSST、Point4的ρChl-a、PS等3个因子作为输入层构建的3-2-1的BP网络结构，2011－2012年的平均预报精度达到最高，为91.5%，该模型可用于太平洋褶柔鱼资源补充量的预测。%The Japanese common squid,Todarodes pacificus (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae), is short-lived species, and its recruitment extremely easily affected by settlement to environmental change. According to the Japan ofTodarodes pacificus autumn-spawning group resource evaluation report in 2013, as well as sea surface temperature (tSST), chlorophyll-a concentration (ρChl-a) in the spawning grounds, calculate the Japanese common squid in spawning ground spawning month optimal range temperature accounts for the proportion of the total (Ps) and characterization of spawning ground environment oftSST, chlorophyll a concentration and other environmental factors and unit catches in the amount of fishing effort (CPUE), set up a variety of resources recharge forecast model based on the main environmental factors. The result shows thatTodarodes pacificus recruitment of the correlation coefficient and the amount of the monthlytSST respectively , Point 1 (33.5°N,129.5°E) in October , Point 2 (31°N,127°E) in November, Point 3(33.5°N,125°E) in December, and correlation coefficient of theρChl-a concentration in Point 4 (34°N,129.5°E) in November, Point 5 (35°N,130°E) in December. The BP model with the structure 3-2-1 by usingtSST at Point 1,ρChl-a at Point 4 and Ps is the best, and the average forecasting accuracy rate attain 91.5%. This model can be used in the forecasting the recruitment of Todarodes pacificus.
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