Based on the panel data of per income and expenditure of urban residents in China, this paper, after making an empirical analysis on their consumption functions by using some methods of time series analysis including co-integration and varying-coefficient models, establishes the models that show autonomous consumption and the marginal consumption propensity. Evidence shows that long-term equilibrium relationship exists between disposable income and expenditure, and current income is the most important factor affecting the household consumption as well. Some proposals are offered correspondingly.%利用我国城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费支出的面板数据(1991-2009),采用变系数模型、协整理论等时间序列分析方法对其消费行为进行实证检验,并建立了城镇居民的消费模型,分析了边际消费倾向和自发性消费.结果表明:可支配收入与其消费支出之间存在着长期均衡的关系;当期收入是影响居民消费的最直接、最重要的因素,并据此提出相应的一些政策建议.
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