地下水水位动态变化过程十分复杂,受多种因素制约,属于部分特征已知,部分特征未知的灰色系统。本文基于灰色系统预测理论,以张掖市甘州区田家小庙2-3潜水观测孔2000-2012年间的动态观测数据为依据,建立GM(1,l)时间-地下水位模型,应用灰色系统理论对观测数据进行计算模拟,并对未来地下水水位变化趋势进行预测,研究结果表明该区域未来几年地下水水位将呈现下降的趋势。本文的研究结果可以为张掖市甘州区地下水资源综合利用、城市建设、地下建筑防护等提供理论依据。%The change of groundwater level dynamics is a complicate changing process, and it is affected by many natural factors. This dynamical changing process can be considered as a grey system, in which some characteristics are already known and the others are unknown. Based on the prediction theory of grey system, the Tianjiaxiaomiao in the Ganzhou district of Zhangye city is investigated as an example. By considering the 2000 to 2012 observation data of 2-3 diving hole, a GM (1,l) time-underground water level model is established. And then, this paper uses the grey system theory to calculate and simulate the observed data so as to forecast the future changing trend of the groundwater table. It is found that the groundwater level in this district shows a general downward trend in the next few years. The research results can provide theoretical basis for the comprehensive utilization of groundwater resources, the construction of urban, and the protection of underground buildings.
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