运用＂中国健康与营养调查＂数据中2000、2004、2006及2009年共四期的县级面板数据,借鉴双重差分模型,从就医流向角度对新型农村合作医疗制度的政策效果进行实证分析发现,新型农村合作医疗制度提高了农民患者到基层医疗机构（尤其是村诊所）就诊的比例,使得农民患者到村诊所就诊的比例增加了10%以上,同时降低了农民患者到县医院和其他医疗机构就诊的比例,使其分别减少4%-13%和3%-15%,其中新农合对村诊所、县医院和其他医疗机构的影响具有统计学意义。时间趋势研究表明,新型农村合作医疗对农民就医流向的影响具有持续性的作用。%Using a dataset containing four years＇ country-level panel data, including the survey of the year of 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2009, this study conducts a empirical analysis of the causal effects of New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme（NCMS） on patient choice of medical provider. We employ a difference- in-difference （DID） estimation method, taking advantage of the fact that the NCMS were spread gradually from some regions to others. We find that NCMS improve the proportion of patient to primary health care institutions, especially to village-level facilities, and bring an increase of over 10% for the proportion to village-level facilities. At the same time, NCMS decrease the proportion of patient to country hospitals and other facilities, making the proportion reduce 4%-13% and 13%-15% respectively. The results indicate that NCMS have a significant impact on patient choice of village-level facilities, country hospitals and other facilities. Also, the research discovered that the NCMS has a continuous impaction on patient choice, as time goes on.
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