首页> 中文期刊> 《水利学报》 >应用农业生产系统模型分析冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系的农田水氮利用效率Ⅱ:模型的模拟验证与情景分析

应用农业生产系统模型分析冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系的农田水氮利用效率Ⅱ:模型的模拟验证与情景分析

         

摘要

应用经过参数灵敏度分析与标定后的农业生产系统模型(APSIM),以北京市海淀区东北旺试验站为背景,探讨了不同灌溉、施肥、种植日期和种植密度等农艺措施下冬小麦和夏玉米的产量、水分利用效率及氮肥偏生产力的变化,以期探寻适合当地特定气候、土壤条件下的既能保证粮食稳产高产又能达到资源高效利用的田间管理措施。首先根据所搜集的1985-2005年统计年鉴中的产量数据对参数标定后的模型作了进一步的验证,结果表明:冬小麦和夏玉米产量的模拟值与年鉴统计值之间的平均相对误差分别是43%和21%。运用验证后的模型,基于所设计的9种不同的水氮管理情景进行了模拟分析,结果表明:冬小麦在播前、拔节期和开花期灌溉75ram;丰水年和平水年夏玉米在播前灌溉3lmm,枯水年夏玉米在播前和抽穗分别灌溉20mm,特枯水年夏玉米在播前和抽穗分别灌溉84mm;冬小麦在播前和拔节期分别施人氮肥43kg/hm^2和87kg/hm^2,夏玉米在苗期和大喇叭口期分别施人氮肥40kg/hm^2和80kg/hm^2.这样的节水省氮灌溉施氮方案不仅能够获得较高的粮食产量,还能获得较高的水分利用效率和氮肥偏生产力。%The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to investigate the effect of different agronomic practices including irrigation, fertilizer application, sewing date and plant density on winter wheat and summer maize yield, WUE, PEPN for representative soils and climate. The experiment for finding out the best management to ensure the high yield and high efficiency of nitrogen use was carried out for a station in suburban district of Beijing. Firstly, the APSIM was validated by comparison between the simulated results with statistic data obtained in 1985 to 2005. It showed that the relative error of average yields of winter wheat and summer maize were 43% and 21% respectively. On this basis, the model was applied to simulate and analyze the results for 9 irrigation and nitrogen use scenarios. The results indi- cated that the strategies with 75ram irrigation for winter wheat in the period before sowing, stem-extension and flowering; 31mm irrigation for summer maize in wet and medium wet year before sowing; irrigation 20mm for summer maize before sowing and in earing stage during dry year; irrigation 85mm for summer maize before sowing and earing stage respectively were the best. Furthermore, the fertilization schemes with nitrogen 43kg/hm^2 and 87kg/hm^2 for winter wheat before sowing and in the earing stage respectively and nitrogen 40kg/hm^2 and 80kg/hm^2 for summer maize in the period of seeding and bell-mouth were optimal. These combined schemes of irrigation and fertilization can not only ensure the high yield but also high effi- ciency of nitrogen use.

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