Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province, China

XU Lei; ZHANG Qiao; ZHANG Jing; ZHAO Liang; SUN Wei; JIN Yun-xiang

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Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province, China

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Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri-bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and ifnal grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper ifnds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of “diminishing marginal loss”, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors wil be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfal, grain production of Jilin Province wil fel 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventualy. In re-sponse to ensure China’s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.

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《农业科学学报（英文版）》 |2017年第2期|486-496|共11页
作者
XU Lei; ZHANG Qiao; ZHANG Jing; ZHAO Liang; SUN Wei; JIN Yun-xiang;
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作者单位

Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China;

Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China;

Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China;

Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China;

Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China;

Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture/Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China;

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Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province, China

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