Based on B2 climate change scenario produced by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), which wasdeveloped by the UK Hadley Center, and the wheat yield data outputted by CERES-wheat model, the sensitivity andvulnerability of wheat production to the future climate change in China were studied through analyzing the yield variationusing the GIS (geographical information system) techniques. Results showed that, by the 2070s, there will be threenegative sensitive areas of rain-fed wheat, i.e., northeastern China, the region of the middle and lower reaches of theYangtze River, and part of the Loess Plateau. Irrigated wheat is generally sensitive to the future climate change for mostareas of China, with a lower sensitive degree and a distribution of sensitive areas similar to the rain-fed wheat. For theirrigated wheat, northeast and northwest of China are strongly negative sensitive, while the middle and lower reaches ofthe Yangtze River, the coastal areas of southern China and the southwest of China, are moderately negative sensitive tothe climate change. With the appropriate adaptation to the climate change, the rain-fed wheat in most regions of China willnot be vulnerable and even has a yield increase, while the irrigated wheat will still have a larger vulnerable area (occupyingabout 2/3 of its total area in China), with the highly vulnerable regions distributed in northeastern China and northwesternChina, and the medium and light vulnerable areas distributed along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Yunnan and Guizhou provinces.
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