在缔结自由贸易协定（FTA）时，大多数缔约方对本方竞争力弱的产业往往采取关税保护措施。在确定需要保护的本方产业时大多数缔约方往往采用贸易竞争度等方法而忽略考虑了缔约双方的市场规模和产品特性。这往往会造成保护失当或达不到预期的保护效果。本文采用空间经济学模型，对市场规模、产品差异化程度与关税保护的效果之间进行模拟分析。通过分析得出：虽然关税能够防止本方产业的流出，但是对市场规模小的缔约方来说效果有限；市场规模小的缔约方无需对产品差异化程度小的产品采取高关税保护措施而只需对产品差异化程度大的产品采取高关税保护措施。%Most contracting parties often adopt tariff protection ：measures to protect their low competitive industries （sensitive industries） when they negotiate FTA with other party or parties, but they determine their sensitive industries usu- ally based on trade competitiveness without giving sufficient consideration on mar- ket scales and product differentiation of both parties. This will result in improper protection or cannot get the expected protection effect. This paper, using a spa- tial economics model, analyzes the relationship between market sale, product dif- ferentiation and tariff protection effectiveness. Through simulation analysis, we can draw the following conclusions： although tariff can hinder the rio＇wing out of home industries, but for small market scale parties, its effect is limited; there is no necessity for a small market scale party to adopt high tariff for the industries with low product differentiation, but it is necessary only for the industries with high product differentiation. This analysis can provide a new and overall view- point for the contacting parties to determine their sensitive industries ＇which really need to be protected when they negotiate with their FTA partners.
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