基于2004—2012年中国粮食增产时期粮食主产区的面板数据，采用随机前沿分析框架，发现农业机械的采用以及耕地的集约化利用正成为新时期粮食增产的主要驱动因素，而随着时间的推移，劳动力、化肥投入以及财政支持等传统因素的作用正在衰弱。进一步测度了各省区的粮食增产潜力变动趋势，发现各省区粮食增产潜力呈现稳步强健的上升趋势。各品种如稻谷、小麦和玉米等的情况与此类似，只不过稻谷的增产潜力提升较慢，而小麦和玉米相对较快。由于粮食增产时期中国的增产潜力一直是处于上升态势，因此中国的粮食增产是可持续性的。另外，在我们的考察期内各省区粮食增产效率提升不明显，且稻谷和小麦两个品种增产效率出现一定程度的下降。%Through analyzing the panel data of main grain producing areas in China during the period of grain yield increase from 2004 to 2012 by a stochastic frontier approach, we found that the imple-mentation of agricultural machinery and the arable intensification become the driving force for the grain yield increase in the new era.However, as time passes by, traditional factors like labor force, fertiliz-er input and financial support are playing a weakening role in raising grain yield.On the basis of our measurement of the potential for grain yield increase across China, we found that such potential shows a stable uptrend.Yields in rice, wheat and corn demonstrate a similar tendency.Rice yield potential is improved slowly, while wheat and corn yield potential is improved quickly.Due to the fact that the potential for grain yield has always been on the rise, we came to the conclusion that China’s grain yield increase is sustainable.Additionally, in our investigation period, the efficiency of improving grain yield potential was not evident across China, and that of improving rice and wheat yield potential even went down.
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