工程中的各种风险会引起工程中各道工序持续时间的不确定性，因此计划评审技术（PERT）在进度风险中得到广泛的应用。该方法主要假定每项活动都是随机独立的、服从正态分布。根据PERT的三时估计，估算出各道工序的期望持续时间、期望工期以及整个项目的完工概率。最后应用PERT模型对工程实例进行进度风险研究分析。%Because the duration of the each process caused by the every risk is uncertain in the construction, PERT is wJdel.y used m the progress risk, This method mainly hypothesizes that every activity is randomly independent, and obeys normal distribution. According to the PERT's three-time estimate, the paper estimates the expected duration of the each process, then calculates the expected construction period and the whole project' s completion probability. In the end the paper uses the PERT modle to study and analysis the progress risk of the construction example.
展开▼
