联合火力打击方案评估是作战筹划和指挥决策的核心问题之一,对于打击手段的选择、战法的运用等具有重要的影响,其难点是在不确定条件下有效地建立作战方案到使命目标达成效果之间的映射关系.作战仿真方法往往存在突出的低效率问题,而解析模型的方法难以充分反映目标体系的内部联系和整体效果.目前概率推理模型广泛应用于军事领域的作战方案评估,典型的模型是时间影响网络,其扩展的随机时间影响网络提高了不确定时间延迟的描述能力,因此提出基于随机时间影响网络的联合火力打击方案评估方法,最后结合一个案例对该方法的有效性进行验证.%Assessment of the joint strike plan is a pivotal task for planning and decision-making, and it plays a crucial role in selection and employment of operational art. The challenge is how to model the mapping from plans to mission effectively in uncertain situation. Simulation system is inefficient in evaluating plans, while analytic models are unable to reflect the interaction and overall effect of the target system. The probability reasoning models have currently been utilized extensively in the assessment of military operation, and the typical model is Timed Influence Net (TIN). Stochastic Timed Influence Net ( STTN) is an extensional version of TIN that has enhanced the description of uncertain delay in TIN. Thus, the method of STIN based joint strike plan assessment was provided. Finally, a numerical experiment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of above method.
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