以甘肃省兰州市为例,基于市民旅游意愿调查,构建了兰州市市民旅游意愿的Pearson相关分析和累计logistic回归模型,对影响市民到周边地区旅游的因素进行了分析.结果表明,旅游目的地的治安状况、旅游目的地的知名度、旅游目的地景观与旅游意愿之间存在显著相关.为了促进兰州市周边旅游业的发展,必须改善旅游目的地治安状况,提高旅游地的知名度,优化设计旅游景观.%Travelling willingness affect the development of tourism, while travelling willingness is also influenced by many factors. In this paper, the Pearson correlation analysis model on the wishes of people visiting Lanzhou City is constructed, and the cumulative logistic regression model is also established. The factors influencing people to go to the surrounding areas are analyzed. Analysis reveales that sum scale Cronbach coefficient is 0. 910, correlation coefficient is in a range of 0. 546～0. 769 with the sum, KMO statistics is 0. 808, so scale has good reliability, content validity and structure validity. Research shows that the following three factors have significant correlation with tourism willingness, such as security situation of tourism destinations, the popularity and landscape. For each additional unit, tourism will become a very strong increase in the probability of 2. 0811～4. 272,1. 7341～3. 756,0. 5863～2. 506 units of Lanzhou City residents involved in tourism. Therefore, in order to promote tourism in Lanzhou City and its surrounding development, the security situation and the visibility of tourism in a tourist destination must be improved, and the design of tourist attractions must be optimized.
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