退耕还林的目标之一是减贫,因此退耕还林对农户收入的影响备受关注.本文研究了退耕还林实施13年以后,该工程对农户收入的影响.基于四川省岷江上游2012年329个农户的调查资料,结合分位数回归和多元线性回归模型分析退耕还林的当前影响.同时,比较了退耕户和非退耕户的社会和人口学特征.结果表明,退耕户和非退耕户的社会和人口学特征不存在明显差别.2012年,退耕还林对各个收入水平农户的收入都没有产生明显的影响,对减贫没有产生明显影响.这说明,到2012年岷江上游退耕还林工程已经不能明显增加农户的收入,建议调整实施方案以兼顾生态保护和扶贫.%One secondary target of the SLCP is poverty reduction. Therefore, the impact of the SLCP on household income is a subject of much research. This study was conducted to determine whether the SLCP has affected incomes of households at different income levels13 years after its implementation. Using survey data from 2012 on rural households' livelihoods in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River in Sichuan Province and using the non-participating households as a reference, the current impact of the SLCP on household income is calculated with a multiple linear regression model and a quantile regression model. The socio-geographic features of participating and non-participating households are also be compared. The results show no significant differences between the SLCP participating and non-participating households in many socio-demographic characteristics. Participating in the SLCP had no significant impact on household income at all income levels in the study area in 2012. This finding suggests that the SLCP is not currently increasing household income significantly in the study area, and that the implementation plan of the SLCP should be changed in this area in order to achieve its poverty reduction goal.
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