随着我国农业生态文明建设的推进,农业生态安全也日益受到重视.如何确保农业生态的安全,已经成为不少学者关注的话题.湖北省作为我国重要的农业大省、全国粮食生产基地,确保其农业生态安全对全国粮食安全与农业可持续发展具有重要意义.本文首先运用层次分析法(AHP)与"压力—状态—响应"(PSR)模型构建湖北省农业生态安全评价指标体系与安全等级,接着将2015年全国农业生态安全平均值作为基数,对湖北省农业生态安全进行评价,发现其安全度从2005年的0.90150提升到了2015年的0.97716,提高了0.07566,但没有达到全国的平均值.这说明湖北省农业生态安全虽然得到改善,但是压力还很大,安全度还有待提升.特别是人均水资源量、人口密度、单位面积耕地农药负荷、森林覆盖率、草地退化率、年均降水量等部分指标还呈现恶化趋势.基于此,我们对影响湖北省农业生态安全的因素进行了分析,发现人口布局不合理、农业不当的生产行为、农业自然灾害、农业生态技术的缺失是主要因素.最后,笔者从影响因素层面提出了提升湖北省农业生态安全度的对策建议,希望以此来改善农业生态安全.%With the promotion of agricultural ecological civilization construction in China, agricultural ecological security has received increasing attention. How to ensure agricultural ecological security has become a great concern for many scholars. As an important agricultural province in China, Hubei is of great significance to Chinese food security and agricultural sustainable development. This paper aims to establish an index system of agricultural ecological security and security classification of Hubei via Analytic Hierarchy Process and Pressure-State-Re-sponse methods. An evaluation of agricultural ecological security in Hubei, with a base of the national average value in 2015, reveals that the security degree has increased by 0.07566 from 0.90150 in 2005 to 0.97716 in 2015. Results show that agricultural ecological security in Hubei has improved but failed to reach the national average and there is stil large space for improvement of the security level, considering a trend of deterioration in some in-dexes, such as per capita water resources, population density, per unit area pesticide load of farmland, forest cov-erage, grassland degradation rate and average annual precipitation. Influencing factors, especialy population spa-tial distribution, misconduct in agricultural production, insufficient ability in agricultural natural disaster prevention, deficiency of agro-ecological technology of agricultural ecological security in Hubei are analyzed. For improvement of the degree of agricultural ecological security in Hubei, some countermeasures and suggestions are discussed.
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