本文使用投入产出模型，基于最新的GTAP8数据库，分析了2004年和2007年中国与发达国家和发展中国家贸易隐含碳流向、结构及变化，结果显示中国均为隐含碳净出口国。基于LMDI法对隐含碳净出口进一步分解发现，影响中国对发达国家和发展中国家隐含碳净出口的因素不同，贸易顺差和排放系数差异是导致中国对发达国家隐含碳净出口的关键因素，行业结构差异和排放系数差异是影响中国对发展中国家净出口的关键原因。这与发达国家、中国和其他发展中国家在全球产业链中的分工密切相关。2004-2007年，中国出口结构逐渐转向高端制造业，生产技术逐渐接近发达国家水平。未来随着中国国内技术进步和产业升级、出口结构优化，隐含碳净出口将会下降，贸易对中国碳排放的驱动力会减弱。%Based on the most current GTAP8 database, we analyzed flow, structure and change in trade-embodied carbon emissions between China and the developed world and the developing world from 2004 to 2007 using input-output model. We found that China was always a net embodied emissions exporting country over this period. Based on the LMDI decomposition method, we found that factors influencing net embodied emissions exported from China to developed countries and developing countries differ. Trade surpluses and differences in emissions factors were vital in determining net embodied emissions exported from China to the developed world. Differences in export structures and emissions factors were key factors inlfuencing net emissions between China and developing countries. These were closely related to respective divisions amongst developed countries, China and other developing countries in the global industrial chain. From 2004 to 2007, the export structure of China was transformed to high-end manufacturing with domestic producing technology gradually approaching the level of developed countries. With further technological improvement, industrial upgrades and export structure optimization in China, the net export of embodied carbon emissions will decrease and the driving forces of trade for China’s domestic carbon emissions wil decline.
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