为了保障油气井尤其是高温高压含腐蚀性流体油气井的安全长效生产,针对油气井井筒结构设计的可靠性开展研究.利用可靠性原理,通过分类分析典型油气井井筒部件构成,开展井筒可靠性定量分析方法设计,建立了油气井井筒系统可靠性框图和井筒部件、系统可靠性定量分析数学模型;采用该分析方法对Y油田进行井筒系统可靠性定量估评,估评结果表明:如果采用针对性的措施工艺设计,该油田井筒系统可靠度在投产十年后为0.7948,与常规设计相比可靠度提高165.64%;评估结果可为Y油田井筒系统设计提供参考;从应用情况来看,与预计情况相符.%To ensure the safe and long-term production of oil and gas wells, especially for the oil and gas wells with high temperature,high pressure and corrosive fluid,it is necessary to carry out the reliability research of wellbore structure design for the oil and gas wells.By means of the reliability principle,through analyzing the constitution of the wellbore components in typical oil and gas wells with the classification,the quantitative analysis method of wellbore reliability was designed,and the reliability diagram of wellbore system,the mathematical models for the quantitative analysis of wellbore components and system reliability for the oil and gas wells were established.This analysis method was applied for the quantitative evaluation of wellbore system reliability in Y oilfield.The evaluation results showed that if specific measures were taken in the wellbore design,the reliability of wellbore system would be 0.7948 after ten years'operation,which improved by 165.64%than that of the conventional design.The evaluation results could provide the reference foe the design of the wellbore system in Y oilfield,and the results were consistent with the predicted situation according to the application situation.
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