In order to reduce the risk level of the crude oil depot , based on four kinds of accident causes including human , equipment , environment and management , and on the basis of identifying the risk factors , the integrated DEMTEL/ISM method was used to determine the causality and weights of each factor among the systems , then a system dynamics model was established by using the Vensim software .A risk analysis method of crude oil depot based on DEMATEL /ISM method and system dynamics was formed , namely the integrated D/I-SD method, and the method was applied to carry out the risk anal-ysis of a crude oil depot .The results showed that the key factors influencing the risk of the oil depot were the safety atmos -phere and supervision of the enterprise .The environment risk and the equipment and management risk had a significant im -pact on the early stage of risk development and the mature stage of risk development , respectively .The education degree of employee , usage time of equipment , safety atmosphere and supervision were the key risk factors for the human , equipment , environment and management risk subsystem , respectively .The integrated D/I-SD method analyzed the dynamic development trend of risk and the factors influencing the risk from the systematic perspective , and it can provide a basis for formulating the scientific risk reduction measures for the crude oil depots .%为降低原油库的风险水平,基于人、物、环境、管理4类事故致因,在风险因素辨识的基础上,通过集成DEMATEL/ISM法确定了系统间各因素的因果关系和权重,利用Vensim软件建立了系统动力学模型,形成了1种基于DEMATEL/ISM法和系统动力学的原油库风险分析方法,将该方法应用于某原油库进行了风险分析.研究结果表明:影响油库风险的关键因素是企业的安全氛围和监督力度;环境风险和物、管理风险分别对风险发展前期和风险成熟发展阶段影响显著;员工文化程度、设备使用时间、安全氛围和监管力度分别为人、物、环境和管理风险子系统的关键风险因素.D/I-SD法从系统角度剖析了风险动态发展趋势和影响风险的关键因素,可为制定科学的油库风险削减措施提供依据.
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