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基于案例推理的突发环境事件应急决策模型

         

摘要

突发环境事件不确定性高、演化过程复杂,给企业及政府的应急工作带来很大的困难,故如何提高应急决策的质量,是相关应急工作的重点之一.为了增强以往经验的可用性,利用本体模型进行案例的存储,根据情景构成要素提取方法对情景进行多维的空间表达,在此基础上优化情景匹配算法,实现基于情景的应急决策.最后,通过突发环境事件实例应用,验证该方法能够快速建立实例与本体模型之间的关系,提高知识的可用性和共享性,实现情景的多维表达,进而满足"情景-应对"的应急决策要求.%Due to the high uncertainty and complex evolution process , the emergency environmental accidents have brought enormous difficulties to the emergency work of enterprises and government , so improving the quality of emergency decision -making has become the key point of relevant emergency work .In order to enhance the availability of previous experience , the storage of cases was carried out by using the ontology model , and the multi-dimensional spatial expression of scenarios was conducted according to the extraction method of scenario elements .On this basis, the scenario matching algorithm was opti-mized to realize the decision -making based on scenario .Finally, this method was verified through the model application of emergency environmental accident case .The results showed that this method can establish the relationship between the case and the ontology model quickly , improve the availability and shareability of knowledge , and realize the multi -dimensional expression of scenario , thus meet the emergency decision -making requirements of "scenario -response".

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