In order to reduce the artificial stone flow in safe production of metal and nonmetal mines, and to improve the accuracy of the data with tailing ponds on-line monitoring system and the disaster forecast level, by focusing on the tailings dam deformation displacement, and taking the measured data by on-line monitoring technology as the original data, with the main line time, and using grey system theory, a numerical model of tailings dam deformation displacement was proposed. Finally, the prediction of the dam deformation displacement practical engineering was conducted. The results showed that the model can remove the influence of many factors, such as the weather, manpower, and the scene out conditions, and this method can provide reliable basis for manual monitoring,ensure the safe operation of the tailings,and guarantee the people's life and property security.%为了降低尾矿库在金属非金属矿山安全生产中的危险,提高尾矿库在线监测数据的准确性,提高尾矿库工程溃决的预报预测水平,将尾矿库坝体形变位移作为研究重点,以在线监测技术测得的数值为原始数据,利用灰色系统理论的方法,以时间为主线,建立尾矿库坝体位移数学模型.最后,进行了工程实际坝体形变位移预测,结果表明,利用灰色系统理论建立的模型进行预测可以排除天气、人工、现场条件等许多因素的影响,为人工监测提供可靠依据.
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