回顾了事故频发倾向理论的发展史和学术纷争,并提出了探讨其适用性的方法:归纳支持与反对该理论的正反两方面论据并分别分析行业特点,则可知其仅适用于正面例证所代表的行业,而非相反.依照这一思路,分析了前人的研究结果和数据,并从多种人因理论的角度论证了以下结论:依据生产模式的不同,现代工业应当被划分为人本工业与系统工业两个范畴,事故频发倾向理论只适用于人本工业,不适用于系统工业.该结论对于企业安全生产的指导意义为:企业应当判断自身的生产模式,从而判断事故频发倾向理论在本单位是否适用.若该理论适用,则应充分实施其原则,若不适用,则应避免其滥用所造成的影响.最后提出此研究的不足并对未来研究进行展望.%The progress and academic debates of the accident proneness theory were reviewed. The method to determine the applicability of this theory was proposed: both of the supporting and negative evidences of this theory can be gathered and the features of each sort can be summarized, then it can be concluded that this theory is appli-cably in the field of the industries which have the features of the supporting evidences and not the other way round. In the light of this method, the data and conclusions of the previous researches were collected and analyzed. Based on these materials, several human-factor theories of the safety engineering were used to prove the following opinions; Modern industry can be divided into two categories which are named hominine-industry and system-industry according to different feature of operation mode. The accident proneness theory is applicable only for the Hominine-industry but not for the System-industry. The advice to the safety engineers of the high-risk industry was given that every corporation should estimate the mode of their operation and which category they belong to. Then it can be known whether they should carry the accident proneness discriminate into execution in their safety management. If it' s applicable, it must be carried on. If it' s not, the misuse of this theory must be prevented. The deficiencies of this study and expectation for further studies were put forward.
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