引发井控风险的因素很多,各因素对风险的影响也大小不一,做好井控风险诱因影响程度大小的评估工作是有效降低井喷事故发生率、减少事故损失的基础工作.专家调查法是一种简便易行的调查方法,但是组织大量的专家进行井控风险诱因的调查难度很大,本文采用改进的专家调查法,通过调研专家的文章、谈话、评论的方式来代替组织专家开会研讨的方法研究石油钻井井控风险诱因,改进的专家调查法所得出的调查结果与现场实际一致,表明了该方法科学、简便易行.这种对专家调查法的改进可以推广应用在其他行业上.%Many factors can lead to well control risk, and different factors have different influences on the risk. The assessment of the influences that the well control risk incentives have on the risk is the basic work that can effectively prevent the blowout accident and reduce the economic losses. Expert investigation is a simple and easy investigation method, but it is very difficult to organize a large number of experts to conduct the well control risk incentives investigation. Instead of holding expert meetings, the improved expert investigation method was applied to study the well control risk incentives by investigating and surveying the papers, conversations and comments of the experts. The improved expert investigation method was confirmed to be effective through the real experiment data, and can be applied in other industries.
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