针对舰船运动系统的复杂性及非线性，提出采用灰色拓扑预测模型、GM(1,1)模型建立舰船运动的单项预测模型，并对各单项模型的优缺点进行了比较分析。采用标准差法建立基于拓扑预测与GM(1,1)模型的舰船运动组合预测模型。结果表明，组合预测模型的预测精度高于各单项模型的精度，该组合模型可作为提高舰船运动数据预测精度的有效工具。%Aimed against complexity and non-linearity of ship motion system,adopt grey topology prediction model and GM(1, 1) model to construct forecasting models of ship motion respectively,as well as,analyzed and compared the advantages and the disadvantages of these models.Gave the combination model of ship motion predictionwith the standard deviation based on the above two models.The results shown that the combined model has a high prediction accuracy compare with other two prediction models,and the combined model can also take as an effective tool to improve prediction accuracy in ship motion forecasting.
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