In order to improve the navigation safety of inland sightseeing ships, and reduce the risk level of catastrophic ship-bridge collision accidents, the ship-bridge collision probability based on AASHTO model is predicted, the impacts of collision forces on the ship bow structure safety and the ship stability with a large inclination angle are analyzed, and then the ship-bridge collision risk assessment method is proposed. The method is used to evaluate the ship-bridge collision risk of an inland sightseeing ship. The influences of the ship speed and the deformation coefficient of the bridge pier anti-collision device on the ship bow structure safety and the ship stability with a large inclination angle are discussed. The result indicates that: if the ship speed is reduced properly when passing through the bridge water area, the ship capsizing accident caused by ship-bridge collision can be avoided; adding elastic or flexible anti-collision device and increasing the deformation coefficient of anti-collision device, the ship structure damage degree can be reduced so as to avoid ship capsizing. The risk assessment method is rational and the conclusion can be used as reference for safe navigation of inland sightseeing ships.%为提高内河观光船航行安全性,降低撞桥灾难性事故发生的风险水平,基于AASHTO模型进行船撞桥概率预报,分析撞击力对船首结构安全和船舶大倾角稳性的影响,提出船撞桥风险评估方法.应用该方法对某内河观光船撞桥风险进行评估,并讨论船速和桥墩防撞装置变形系数对船首结构安全和船舶大倾角稳性的影响.结果表明:船舶通过桥区水域时,若适当降低航速,可避免由撞桥导致的船舶倾覆事故的发生;增设弹性或柔性防撞装置,增加防撞装置变形系数,可减少船舶结构损坏程度,避免船舶倾覆.评估方法合理,结论可供内河观光船安全航行参考.
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