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《运动与健康科学：英文版》
>Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
Projecting the impact of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic on childhood obesity in the United States: A microsimulation model
Purpose:The coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)pandemic in the United States led to nationwide stay-at-home orders and school closures.Declines in energy expenditure resulting from canceled physical education classes and reduced physical activity may elevate childhood obesity risk.This study estimated the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity.Methods:A microsimulation model simulated the trajectory of a nationally representative kindergarten cohort’s body mass index z-scores and childhood obesity prevalence from April 2020 to March 2021 under the control scenario without COVID-19 and under the 4 alternative scenarios with COVID-19—Scenario 1:2-month nationwide school closure in April and May 2020;Scenario 2:Scenario 1 followed by a 10%reduction in daily physical activity in the summer from June to August;Scenario 3:Scenario 2 followed by 2-month school closure in September and October;and Scenario 4:Scenario 3 followed by an additional 2-month school closure in November and December.Results:Relative to the control scenario without COVID-19,Scenarios 1,2,3,and 4 were associated with an increase in the mean body mass index z-scores by 0.056(95%confidence interval(95%CI):0.0550.056),0.084(95%CI:0.0840.085),0.141(95%CI:0.1400.142),and 0.198(95%CI:0.1970.199),respectively,and an increase in childhood obesity prevalence by 0.640(95%CI:0.5150.765),0.972(95%CI:0.8191.126),1.676(95%CI:1.4751.877),and 2.373(95%CI:2.1352.612)percentage points,respectively.Compared to girls and non-Hispanic whites and Asians,the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity was modestly larger among boys and non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics,respectively.Conclusion:Public health interventions are urgently called to promote an active lifestyle and engagement in physical activity among children to mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on unhealthy weight gains and childhood obesity.
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