为研究城市群交通运输系统演化机理,揭示系统形成多样性的内在特性,应用系统动力学模型来描述自组织演化过程.首先,基于物流模型分别构建了单一运输方式动态演化模型、两种运输方式竞争演化模型和两种运输方式学习竞争演化模型,探讨了交通运输系统动态演化过程中,某一运输方式的发展同时受到自身发展的动力机制、不同方式之间的竞争机制,以及与资源环境的适应机制的共同作用,发现各种方式之间以及交通运输系统与资源环境之间存在着相互影响、相互制约的非线性关系.研究认为,各种交通运输方式发展具有形成、成长、成熟、衰退(变革)的阶段性特征,在共同演进过程中,对资源环境利用效率的高低是取得竞争优势的重要因素,而技术创新是推动系统演进的持续动力.%To investigate the evolutional mechanism and the inherent characteristics of urban agglomeration transportation system, a transportation-system-dynamics approach is developed to describe the self-organization process. Based on the logistics theory, the so-called dynamic evolution and competition models are proposed respectively. In the dynamic evolution model, the development of a transportation mode is affected by its dynamic mechanism; while the competition mechanism of resources and environment plays an important role in the competition model. As a result, there is a non-linear relationship between the transportation system and the resource environment. In this study, the development of various transportation modes consists of the characteristics of formation, growth, maturity, and recession. In the evolutional process, the utilization efficiency of transportation resources and environment is critical to achieve the competitive advantage, as technological innovation is the driving force for the evolution of the system.
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