Since China’s Higher Education Enrollment in 1999,the number of applicants for National College Entrance Examination increased fast,but it decreased in recent years.There are different reasons:“population decline”,“unfair”,“employment pressure”,“diversity”and “higher education fees”.Some people even intentionally or unintentionally attributed the number of decreasing applicants to family planning policy.Based on provincial panel data from 1999-2010,we found that China’s Family Planning policy decreased the number of applicants.Education reform in-creased the changes of college,but decreased education profit and high the education cost of the rural family.“Diversity”is a shortsighted and help-less choice of the rural choice,under high education fees and employment pressure.Enlarging National College Entrance Examination is unequal.%自1999年扩招以后，中国高考报名人数大大增加，不过近年来高考人数呈下降趋势，其原因众说纷纭。“人口减少”说、“不公平”说、“就业难”说、“多元化”说、“教育高收费”说都有一定市场，甚至有人还将高考报名人数下降有意无意地归于计划生育政策。基于1999年—2010年的省级面板数据，分析发现，计划生育政策减少了高考报名人数，高考扩招在一定程度上提高了农村家庭孩子上大学的机会，但也降低了高等教育收益，增大了农村家庭的教育成本；多元化出路是教育高收费和就业压力下农村家庭短视并无奈的选择，大学扩招存在不公平。
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