文章分析突发事件和事件首发信息特性，以突发事件首发信息所包含的各项基本要素为指标，构建基于突发事件首发信息的风险评估指标体系，通过层次分析法计算出各层级相对于上一层级的单排序结果以及目标总排序权重值，对突发事件首发信息的未来舆情风险进行定量评价，为政府网络信息管理部门从起点出发评估网络舆情风险提供理论支持。%Based on the analysis of emergency and the characteristics of the first information release of an event, risk assessment index system is built on the first information release with the basic elements of the information as indexes. Then through the analytic hierarchy process, each level is calculated to find its single sort with respect to its upper level and target total sort weights, and in this way the risk of future public opinion caused by the first released information about emergency can be assessed quantitatively, providing theoretical support to the government departments in their risk assessment of internet public opinion.
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