以渤海A油田为例，针对目前国内地质模型不确定性评价存在的问题及渤海湾河流相储层的地质特点。提出了一种将Monte-Carlo计算方法与随机建模技术相结合定量评价储层风险的研究思路。该文分析了地质模型中不确定性变量存在的原因，并在随机建模基础上，结合实验设计、响应曲面拟合和Monte-Carlo计算等方法，定量分析了不确定性变量对地质储量产生的影响，预测了储层存在的风险和潜力．为油藏数值模拟提供了一组优选的地质模型。%Taking A oilfield in Bohai Bay as an example, this paper introduced a method of evaluating reservoir risk that combines Monte-Carlo method with stochastic modeling, aiming at the problem of uncertainty analysis of geological model in china and the characteristics of fluvial reservoir in Bohai Bay. The reason that the uncertainty parameters exist in geological model was analyzed. Based on stochastic reservoir modeling, combined with experimental design, multinomial response surface of the main uncertainty factors and reserves and Monte-Carlo method, the effects of uncertainty factors on the reserves were estimated quantitatively and the risk and potential of the reservoir were predicted, which provides a set of optimum geological models for numerical reservoir simulation.
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