This paper takes freight of Guizhou province from 2006 to 2015 as the panel data, using the improved Gray Markov forecasting method, which is the combination of gray GM (1,1 ) prediction method and Maricov chain prediction. Firstly, we compare and analyses the data from the GM(1,1 ) and Improved Gray Markov forecasting method, and draw the conclusion that the imoroved Gray Markov predicted accuracy by 72％. Secondly, we have a empirical analyses, which is aimed to implement a economic forecasting for the trend of logistics demand of Guizhou province in five years, all of this is in order to provide reference of decision-making for government and enterprises.%文章以贵州省2006年到2015年的省际货运总量作为面板数据,利用灰色系统中的灰色GM(1,1)预测法和马尔科夫链预测相结合,即改进的灰色马尔科夫预测方法.首先将GM(1,1)顿测模型与改进后的灰色马尔科夫预测结果进行对比分析,发现改进后的灰色马尔科夫的预测精度提高了72％.并以此进行了针对责州省接下来5年的物流量趋势走向经济预测的实证分析,为政府和企业的物流决策制定提供参考依据.
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