In this paper, we used the GERT stochastic network to establish the emergency logistics distribution model and in connection with empirical examples, calculated the probability of success, risk, distribution time and variance of every distribution route, analyzed the inadequacy of the model and pointed to be improved, and finally presented the improvement plan.%针对非常规突发事件发生之后很难做出准确的预测和判断的问题,运用GERT随机网络构建了应急物流配送模型,并结合实例计算每条路线配送成功的概率、风险概率、配送时间和方差,分析模型中存在的缺陷和需要改进的地方等,进而提出改进的方案.
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机译：当代德国文学中的中篇小说：基于Guenter Grass的小说《 Katz und Maus》，Martin Walser的《 Ein fliehendes Pferd》，Gert Hofmann的《 Die Denunziation》和Dieter Wellershoff的《 Die Sirene》对现代小说叙事进行考察。
