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CZ-2 F火箭整流罩残骸落点预报方法研究

         

摘要

To realize the rapid searching the CZ-2F Rocket’s fairing debris, an impact point predic-tion model based on the correction of high altitude wind was proposed after in-depth study of the deb-ris’ falling down rule and the distribution of the impact point .The feature areas of the fairing debris in the former missions were calculated , then 5 kinds of average feature areas caused by the falling debris were figured out based on the distribution of the fairing debris , and the entire searching area was divided into 5 small areas of 32 km2 based on their appearance probabilities , which could reduce the actual searching area by 90 percent.In Shenzhou 10 mission, the fairing debris fell in the fore-casted area , the distance between the actual impact point and the forecasted point was less than 2 km.The results showed that this impact point prediction method could improve the efficiency of the debris search .%为了快速搜索CZ-2 F火箭整流罩残骸,研究了残骸坠落飞行规律和落点散布规律,建立了高空风修正的整流罩残骸落点预报模型,反推计算了以往任务整流罩残骸的特征面积,并按其分布规律分组计算了残骸坠落过程中出现的5类平均特征面积,依据出现概率将搜索范围缩小为5个32 km2的小区域,搜索面积减少了约90%。神舟十号任务中,整流罩残骸坠落于预报落区内,实际落点与预报落点间的距离小于2 km ,增强了搜索工作的针对性,提高了搜索效率。

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