针对完成载人航天工程交会对接的关键分系统一对接机构分系统，提出了基于概率风险评价（PRA）可靠性评估方法，包括事件链建模、底事件可靠性评估、贝叶斯分析和蒙特卡罗仿真分析等方法。利用该方法能够针对对接机构的对接与分离过程建模，并综合利用对接机构试验与仿真、部件与组件等不同渠道、不同层次的可靠性数据，得到更贴近实际的可靠性评估结果。%A reliability assessment method based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment （PRA） is proposed for the docking mechanism, which is a key subsystem in performing the process of rendezvous and docking in manned space engineering. The method includes scenario modeling, reliability evaluation of the baseline events, Bayes analysis and Monte Carlo Analysis, etc. With this method, the process of docking and separating can be modeled, and more practical assessment can be achieved through the use of reliability data gathered from different channels and levels, such as tests and simulations, parts and components.
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