2016年是养猪人的盛宴,但也不乏一些行情走势中的不尽人意.自从10月中旬反弹以来,猪价涨势呈现"慢牛模式".10月下旬与11月上旬,猪价都在稳健的攀升,但是到了11月中下旬,全国各地又陷入了供需僵局,猪价出现了近两周的滞涨情况.进入2016年最后一个月,猪价上涨动力恢复,整个12月上中旬,猪价都呈现稳定的上涨态势.12月10日猪价均价已突破17元/kg,随着新一轮猪价上行开启,加之饲料原料价格止涨回落,出栏生猪盈利能力大幅提升,养殖场户压栏待售情绪渐浓.对四季度而言支撑猪价最有利的因素还是终端消费需求的逐渐升温,南方腊肉香肠的制作、北方杀猪备年货加上元旦、春节两大节日均形成趋势性支撑,肉类制品迎来销售旺季.由于中小规模散养户的退出,在2017年上半年这段时间内,生猪供应量较少的现实不会改变,但2017年第三季度或四季度生猪市场风险较大.%2016 was a feast of hogman,but there also were some unsatisfactory quotations trend.Since the rebounding in mid of October,the pig price rising trend appeared "manniu pattern".The pig price steadily increased in late October and early November,but until to mid-to-late November,all parts of the country fell into supply and demand deadlock,and the pig price appeared nearly two weeks of stagflation situation.When it entered into the last month of 2016,the rising power of the pig price recovered.During the early of middle of December,the pig price showed a steady upward trend.On December 10th,the average pig price exceeded 17 yuan /kg.With a new round of pig price upward opening and the raw materials price of the fodder stopping rise and falling back,the profitability of slaughter live pigs was significantly promoted,and the mood of leaving in hurdle for sale of the raising households became thicker.As for the four quarter,the most favorable factor to support for the pig price was that the final consumer demand gradually became warm.The bacon and sausage production in the south,killing pig for the Spring Festival in the north and the two festivals of the New Year and the Spring Festival all formed a trend support.The meat products would welcome in the season of sales.Due to the exit of middle and small size scattering raising households,in the period of time of the first half of 2017,the reality of the less supply of live pigs would not be changed,but the risk of live pigs market would be bigger in the third quarter or the fourth quarter of 2017.
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