瓦斯是造成煤矿生产过程中事故频发的重要因素．以预测矿井瓦斯涌出量为研究目的，运用灰色系统理论，通过对矿井瓦斯涌出资料进行分析、研究建立GM（1，1）瓦斯涌出量灰色预测模型对瓦斯涌出量变化趋势进行预测，并与现场实际瓦斯涌出量比较，结果表明该模型精度较高，能够很好用于矿井瓦斯涌出量的预测，为井下安全生产和瓦斯监测提供依据，从而避免瓦斯事故的发生．%Gas is an important factor which causes frequent accidents in coal production. By taking mine gas emission prediction as the research purposes and using grey system theory, this paper analyzes mine gas emission data, and establishes GM ( 1,1 ) grey forecasting model to forecast the change trend of the gas emission. By comparing with the actual gas emission quantity, results show that the model can better predict mine gas emission, and provide basis for downhole safety production and gas monitor. In this way gas accidents can be avoided.
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