The models for probability of target identification and probability of penetrating into the defense system are established. Two intercepting manners are analyzed and compared. The barrage defense is simple to derive and has a lower requirement of the alerting and tracking radar, which can be efficient when there are not so many targets. While the shoot-look-shoot defense has a higher requirement of the alerting and tracking radar, which needs much less interceptors and costs less than barrage defense when there are a great quantity of targets.% 建立目标识别概率模型和弹头穿透防守区域概率模型，分析两种不同拦截模式的简化概率模型并对其拦截效能进行对比：弹幕防守方式理论简单，对预警和跟踪系统要求较低，在攻击规模不大时，可有效拦截目标；发射-观察-发射防守方式对预警和跟踪系统要求较高，但在攻击规模较大时，可分批次有效拦截来犯导弹，使用的拦截弹数量远小于弹幕式防守方式，具有良好的经济性能。
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