The data of patient medical records of all thyroid diseases in three first class hospitals in different cities in 7 years(2006-2012)were collected and analyzed statistically. A statistic model was established with SPSS time series method. Starting with patient's common non-physiological indexes,such as gender,age,occupation,etc.,the incidence of thyroid disease was studied,the interference factors for thyroid disease were obtained,and the ARIMA model,one of the most effective and most comprehensive statistical methods in time series forecasting, was established. The purpose to prevent and control the dis-ease was achieved.%收集不同城市的三家甲级医院在7年时间（2006-2012年）的所有甲状腺疾病的患者的病案数据进行整理和统计分析。利用SPSS时间序列方法建立合理的统计模型。从患者的性别、年龄和职业等常见的非生理性指标因素入手，研究甲状腺疾病的发病态势，获取甲状腺疾病的干扰因素。建立时间序列预测技术中最全面、最有效的统计方法之一--ARIMA模型，达到对疾病的预防和防控的目的。
展开▼
