油气储量计算是规划部署开发策略、制订开发方案的基础.目前常用的计算'方法有容积法、类比法和物质平衡法等,其中容积法适用性较好,包括确定法和概率法两种数值计算方法.首先对比分析了确定法和概率法两种方法的计算原理,然后采用容积法的计算公式.分别运用确定法和概率法计算地质储量并对两种方法进行应用实例分析.对比分析和计算结果表明:确定法在计算过程中对各物性参数采用算术平均值,而概率法首先确定各计算参数的概率分布规律与变量变化的整体范围,然后采用蒙特卡罗方法多次迭代得到不同概率下的储量值;与确定法相比较,概率法可提供一组基于不同风险值的储量值,从而能更好地评估储量风险,为投资决策者提供更可靠的参考依据.%Reserve estimation is one of the most important parts of reservoir exploration and development, and is also the ba-sis of development policy and plan making. Currently, for reserve estimation, there are volumetric method, analogy method and material balance method. Compared with the other two, the volumetric method shows a better suitability, which includes two numerical methods,i.e. Deterministic and stochastic in parameter deterrhination. Hereby, the differences of calculation con-cept between the deterministic method and the stochastic method were compared firstly. Then, geological reserves were esti-mated as a practice using the deterministic method and the stochastic method respectively. Analysis and results show that arith-metic mean values are applied to all the physical property parameters by the deterministic method, while for the stochastic method, probable distribution function of the calculated parameters is determined and then reserves corresponding to different probability are obtained through multiple iterations of Monte Carlo simulation. Compared with the deterministic method, calcu-lation results show that the stochastic method which can offer a series of reserves based on varying risks, thus better assessing reserve risks can supply a better reference for the investment decision-makers.
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