首页> 中文期刊> 《西北水电》 >基于 MK 与 SR 非参数检验方法的干旱区降水趋势分析

基于 MK 与 SR 非参数检验方法的干旱区降水趋势分析

         

摘要

To study the variation trend of precipitation time in Xinjiang Che'erchen river basin so as to promote the optimum arrangement of the water resources in the region, the 53-year data on precipitation (1956-2008) from the Meteorological Station, Qiemo County and the non-parameter verification methods of Mann-Kendall ( MK) and Spearman's Rho ( SR) are applied to verify the significance of varia-tion trend of precipitation data in terms of year, month and quarter.To eliminate impacts by the precipitation series correlation, the pre-cipitation data is treated by trend free pre-whitening approach.The results present that in the analysis by month, January, February, May and December pass the significance verification, and their growths are 0.016 2,0.013 6, 0.076 9 and 0.017 6 mm/a respectively;in the analysis by quarter, both spring and winter pass the significance verification, their growths are 0.135 5 mm/a and 0.045 3 mm/a;the analysis by year passes the significance verification.The trend of the precipitation in the region in last 53 a increases slowly, the growth is 0.261 4 mm/a.The data are verified by the non-parameter methods of MK and SR.The results are completely the same.One method applied to verify the other is realized.%为研究新疆车尔臣河流域降水时间变化趋势,促进该地区的水资源优化配置,利用且末县气象站53a的降水资料(1956-2008年),使用Mann-Kendall(MK)和Spearman's Rho(SR)非参数检验方法对降水数据在月、季、年3种时间尺度上的变化趋势进行显著性检验。为消除降水序列相关性的影响,对降水数据进行趋势自由预白化( Trend Free Pre-Whit-ening approach,简称TFPW)处理。结果表明:在月尺度分析中,1、2、5和12月通过了显著性检验,其增长趋势分别为0.0162、0.0136、0.0769和0.0176 mm/a;在季节尺度分析中,春季与冬季通过了显著性检验,其增长趋势分别为0.1355 mm/a和0.0453 mm/a;年尺度分析通过了显著性检验,研究区近53 a来降水量呈缓慢增长趋势,其值为0.2614 mm/a;采用MK和SR非参数方法对数据进行检验,所得结果完全一致,实现了方法对方法的检验。

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