非常规突发事件因其爆发性,演变不确定性,群体扩散性等特点备受学者们关注.随着技术的发展与互联网应用的普及,新兴媒体作为非常规突发事件信息传播的载体和平台,令非常规突发事件的相关信息传播更迅速,也使事件影响力更广泛.采用传统的应急管理方式难以有效应对此类事件.从微观视角出发,着重研究致使非常规突发事件发生的内在因素和外在因素,同时对内外在引致因素间的耦合度进行建模,通过案例研究寻找引致因素耦合度与事件影响力的关系.最终证明了非常规突发事件内外在引致因素间的耦合度越大,事件的社会影响力越大,为非常规突发事件决策者提供决策依据.%Because the unexpected emergency includes the characteristics of sudden devastating, uncertain evolution and diffusion in the groups, more and more researchers concentrate on this topic and try to find the rules which can help the public managers to make the decision. Especially, with the development of technology and the popularization of internet, the new media make the information of unexpected emergency broadcasted more rapidly and the emergency had more powerful influence on the whole society. But the traditional mechanism of emergency management can not explain the new phenomenon bringing by the new media. Therefore we try to research the unexpected emergency from the microcosmic viewpoint. This paper focus on the intrinsic and extrinsic incur factor of the unexpected emergency, and try to model the coupling degree between them, which we hypothesized will impact the social influence of the emergency . In order to prove it we use case study method to explore the relationship between the coupling degree and social influence. Finally, we prove that there exists the positive relationship between the coupling degree and social influence.
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