为了解决航天发射场复杂可维修多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system，PMS)的任务可靠性评估问题，依据考虑维修的多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system considering maintenance，PMSCM)理论和蒙特卡罗方法，基于系统特殊的任务成功定义规则，通过任务阶段的形式化描述与零部件的虚节点处理，建立可靠性评估仿真模型。将模型应用于航天发射场垂直总装厂房液压系统，成功分析了系统多阶段任务的可靠性均值、方差和置信区间。仿真结果表明：该模型能够找出系统的关键部件，为垂直总装厂房及航天发射场系统总体任务进行可靠性预计、分配和评估提供重要参考和决策支持。%For solving mission reliability evaluation problem of complex maintenance phased-mission system (PMS) space launch site, according to phased-mission system considering maintenance (PMSCM) theory and Monte Carlo method, and mission success definition principle based on system feature, establish reliability evaluation simulation model through mission phase formal description and translating components into virtual nodes. Then, the model was used in assembly shop’s hydraulic pressure system cell of space launch site. The phased-mission system reliability’s mean, variance and confidence interval were analyzed successfully. Finally, the simulation result also indicated that the model could help people find out the key component in a system, providing decision support and reference for the reliability prediction, allocation and evaluation of vertical assembly shop and even space launch site.
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