Characteristics of Steep Cultivated Land and the Impact of the Grain-for-Green Policy in China

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Characteristics of Steep Cultivated Land and the Impact of the Grain-for-Green Policy in China

机译：陡峭耕地的特征及其对中国退耕还林政策的影响

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The Grain-for-Green Policy in China could not only improve China's ecological quality, but also influence grain supplies for a short term. Based on data from the detailed nationwide land use survey in 1996 and the steep cultivated land survey update in 2000, a regression model for the driving forces affecting steep cultivated lands was developed, and cluster analysis was used to identify seven steep cultivated land types in order to analyze the grain availability impact of the project with land usage estimates for 2010 and 2030. The results suggested that consecutive days with minimum daily temperature over 10 ℃ and the dominant slope in a county constrained the spatial distribution of steep cultivated lands.In terms of socioeconomic factors, steep cultivated land was a complex interaction of population size, gross domestic production level, and the richness and quality of cultivated lands having slopes less than 15°. The trends for steep cultivated land in 2010 and 2030 were forecast using a driving forces model and China's grain security criteria and showed that the Grain-for-Green Policy at the national level would not cause a grain shortage or threaten food security criteria.However, if steep sloped lands were to be retired from production, some regions would need grain supplements as early as 2010. Also, assuming that only 60% of the cultivated land at the national level was needed, population and economic development pressures in 2030 would require some steep cultivated lands to be used for grain production.

机译：中国的绿色换粮政策不仅可以改善中国的生态质量，而且可以在短期内影响谷物供应。根据1996年全国详细土地利用调查和2000年陡坡耕地调查的数据，建立了影响陡坡耕地的驱动力回归模型，并使用聚类分析依次确定了7种陡坡耕地类型。用2010年和2030年的土地利用估计数来分析该项目对粮食供应的影响。结果表明，连续10天最低气温超过10℃的连续日以及一个县的优势坡度限制了陡峭耕地的空间分布。社会经济因素，陡峭的耕地是人口规模，国内生产总值以及坡度小于15°的耕地的丰富度和质量的复杂相互作用。使用驱动力模型和中国的粮食安全标准对2010年和2030年陡峭耕地的趋势进行了预测，结果表明，国家一级的绿色换粮政策不会导致粮食短缺或威胁粮食安全标准。如果要退耕陡坡土地，某些地区最早在2010年就需要谷物补充。此外，假设仅需要全国60％的耕地，那么2030年的人口和经济发展压力将需要陡峭的耕地，用于谷物生产。

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《土壤圈（英文版）》 |2006年第2期|215-223|共9页
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作者单位

College of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094 China;

Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry, Beijing 100081 China;

College of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094 China;

China Institute of Land Survey and Planning, Beijing 100035 China;

China Institute of Land Survey and Planning, Beijing 100035 China;

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收录信息中国科学引文数据库(CSCD);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 chi
中图分类农业基础科学;
关键词
driving forces model; grain availability; Grain-for-Green Policy; steep cultivated land;

机译：驱动力模型;粮食可供量;绿色换粮政策;耕地陡峭;

Characteristics of Steep Cultivated Land and the Impact of the Grain-for-Green Policy in China

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